πŸ“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

πŸ”­ The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global β€” Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm β€” and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

7 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date 1M-population country adopts UBI

2042-02-27

Date 1M-population country adopts UBI

2045-04-03
7
0

Make a Prediction

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

Date 1M-population country adopts UBI

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-01
...
...
...
...
2035-04-03 22:25
2042-02-27 18:33
2046-07-30 20:25
0.5%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
TomL
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Economy & Business
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Andrew Yang
Machine Intelligence

Comments

? comments