M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

Question

Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?

Resolved :Yes
5
45
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

median 95.0%mean 92.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
IY
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Black Sea
Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian Navy
Black Sea Fleet
Kilo-class submarine
Ukrainian Navy
Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy
Turkish Naval Forces
Bosporus
Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits

Comments

? comments