Question

Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?

Resolved :Yes95%

45 comments45

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction95% (90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.3

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 1, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy

Turkish Naval Forces

Bosporus

Russian Submarines: Navy Commander Hypes Growing Fleet Amid NATO Tensions

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Russian Ship Full of Troops Breaks Down at Sea

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Russians Blame Loss of Ship With Critical Cargo on 'Terrorism'

Red State•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

58.5%

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

3.7%

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 1, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy

Turkish Naval Forces

Bosporus

Russian Submarines: Navy Commander Hypes Growing Fleet Amid NATO Tensions

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Russian Ship Full of Troops Breaks Down at Sea

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Russians Blame Loss of Ship With Critical Cargo on 'Terrorism'

Red State•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

58.5%

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

3.7%

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%