10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

conditional

condition

US Hyperinflation Before 2050

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

17%

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

11%

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Make a Prediction

US Hyperinflation Before 2050	10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 16.7%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Jul 26, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

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If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

33%

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Will annual US inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Jul 26, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Bureau of Labor Statistics

UNICEF

Trump Tariff Plan Risks Upending Trade, Stoking Food Inflation

Bloomberg•Feb 16, 2025

Collapse of Our Food Security.

Lew Rockwell•Feb 16, 2025

Climate Upheaval, Mild or Severe, Who Really Cares?

CounterPunch•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

33%