10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

conditional

condition

US Hyperinflation Before 2050

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

17%

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

11%

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US Hyperinflation Before 2050	10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 16.7%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Bureau of Labor Statistics

UNICEF

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

US unemployment rate 10% before 2031? → Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

Will annual US inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Bureau of Labor Statistics

UNICEF

Is the climate change food crisis even worse than we imagined?

New Scientist•Nov 12, 2024

Soaring grocery prices helped Trump to victory. The climate crisis is only going to make this worse | James Meadway

Guardian•Nov 13, 2024

High grocery prices got droves of Americans to vote for Trump but they shouldn’t expect to pay less over the next four years

CNN•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%