Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here β€” $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?

Resolved :Yes99.9%
15
53
Total Forecasters188
Community Prediction99.9% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
89.7
Community Peer Score
19.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
πŸ† Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup πŸ†
Environment & Climate
2023 Leaderboard
Antarctica
Geography
Environmental science
Climate change denial
National Snow and Ice Data Center

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