Question

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

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Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction2051-10-05 (2041-06-05 - 2063-04-23)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2095-12-31

...

2041-06-05 18:02

2051-10-05 20:28

2063-04-23 20:01

7.2%

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Oceanography

Nature (journal)

Climatology

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate Change Trial at The Hague

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Atmospheric Rivers Set to Dramatically Change Up and Down West Coast

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

2027-05-03

When will the Climate Clock hit zero?

2029-06-03

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Oceanography

Nature (journal)

Climatology

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate Change Trial at The Hague

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Atmospheric Rivers Set to Dramatically Change Up and Down West Coast

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

2027-05-03

When will the Climate Clock hit zero?

2029-06-03

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

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When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

Make a Prediction

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

When will the Climate Clock hit zero?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Comments

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

When will the Climate Clock hit zero?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

When will the Climate Clock hit zero?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

When will the Climate Clock hit zero?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?