Question

Will at least two of the largest Abrahamic religions recognize the arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 9.1%

Authors:

FNORD

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Prophets and messengers in Islam

Trump election: Christian “prophets” were promised power. But they’re losing a major source of it.

Slate•Nov 12, 2024

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The Islamic world reorganizes the strategy in Riyadh

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Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?

Will the Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order become an independent, recognised country before 2035?

40%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

FNORD

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Prophets and messengers in Islam

Trump election: Christian “prophets” were promised power. But they’re losing a major source of it.

Slate•Nov 12, 2024

The English Beast Awakens: A Warning from The Second Coming

CounterPunch•Nov 15, 2024

The Islamic world reorganizes the strategy in Riyadh

Strategic Culture•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?

Will the Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order become an independent, recognised country before 2035?

40%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%