📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?

Resolved :No0.1%
Community Prediction0%1.2%2.4%3.6%4.8%6%Nov 01Nov 05Nov 09Nov 13Nov 17Nov 21Nov 25Nov 29Dec 03Dec 07Dec 11Dec 15Dec 19Dec 23Dec 27Dec 31now
Total Forecasters159
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
99.2
Community Peer Score
8.7
Authors:
Opened:Aug 1, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025

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