📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

In what year will satellite-based monitoring systems first accurately measure global CO2 and CH4 emissions in real-time?

1
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Total Forecasters6
Community Prediction2027-01-05 (2025-04-27 - 2029-06-13)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-01
...
...
...
...
2025-04-27 09:29
2027-01-05 00:23
2029-06-13 13:51
0.1%
Authors:
exoplanet_emma
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Space Technology & Climate
Space
Environment & Climate
Economy & Business
Technology
World Meteorological Organization
Chemistry
Atmospheric science
Methane
Carbon dioxide
Environmental science
Climatology
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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