Question

Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Resolved :No0.1%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.7

Community Beer Score

6.8

Authors:

ksimpson

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

Donald Trump

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NBC•Dec 13, 2024

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USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

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Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ksimpson

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

Donald Trump

Chuck Todd: Is the rise of the independents coming? An experiment is brewing in a key battleground

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Mitt Romney's Senate Exit May Create Vacuum of Trump Critics

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Mitt Romney predicts JD Vance will be 2028 GOP nominee: 'MAGA is the Republican Party'

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

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Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Make a Prediction

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?