Question

Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.7

Community Peer Score

6.8

median 0.1%mean 1.4%

Authors:

ksimpson

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Republican Party (US)

Donald Trump

Democratic Party (US)

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2056-10-10

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

39%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ksimpson

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Republican Party (US)

Donald Trump

Democratic Party (US)

Trump’s win was real but not a landslide. Here’s where it ranks

CNN•Nov 10, 2024

Vance in 'catbird seat' for 2028 GOP presidential nomination, but these Republicans may also run

FOX News•Nov 12, 2024

Donald Trump Quips About Running for Third Term

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2056-10-10

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

39%