Question

Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?

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Total Forecasters42

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community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 3.9%

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evanbd

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Superconductor Frontiers

Natural Sciences

Technology

High-temperature superconductivity

Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

0.2%

Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?

0.1%

Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

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Authors:

evanbd

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Superconductor Frontiers

Natural Sciences

Technology

High-temperature superconductivity

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Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

0.2%

Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?

0.1%