Question

Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction57% (34% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 57%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Nov 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computational theory of mind

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

OpenAI’s Sam Altman: ‘We Know How To Build AGI’, Will Hit Workforce In 2025

Daily Wire•Jan 26, 2025

AI Is Too Unpredictable to Behave According to Human Goals

Scientific American•Jan 27, 2025

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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15%

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