Question

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

Resolved :Annulled89%

25 comments25

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction89% (80% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2028

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2029

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

This hurricane season might be kinder than the last. But DOGE cuts at NOAA could still impact the ability to save lives

Independent•Feb 28, 2025

Meteorologists say Trump's cuts are going to make weather forecasts way worse

Business Insider•Mar 1, 2025

Meteorologists say Trump's cuts are going to make weather forecasts way worse

Business Insider•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

52%

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

2028-02-11

Comments

? comments

Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2028

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2029

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

This hurricane season might be kinder than the last. But DOGE cuts at NOAA could still impact the ability to save lives

Independent•Feb 28, 2025

Meteorologists say Trump's cuts are going to make weather forecasts way worse

Business Insider•Mar 1, 2025

Meteorologists say Trump's cuts are going to make weather forecasts way worse

Business Insider•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

52%

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

2028-02-11