Question

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

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Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction80%

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community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 74.2%

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exoplanet_emma

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Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

52%

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

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Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

October hurricane forecast: Brace for the 'return of big hurricanes'

USA Today•Oct 2, 2024

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NBC•Oct 2, 2024

Hurricanes are dangerous far from the coast. Communities are struggling to prepare

NPR Online News•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

52%

MetaculusM

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Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

Make a Prediction

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

Comments

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting