Question

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction87% (80% - 92%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 87%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Dismantling the ‘Climate Alarm Industry’ Per Project 2025

CounterPunch•Dec 20, 2024

White Christmas Uncertain As NOAA Map Reveals Temperatures

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

2026-06-06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Dismantling the ‘Climate Alarm Industry’ Per Project 2025

CounterPunch•Dec 20, 2024

White Christmas Uncertain As NOAA Map Reveals Temperatures

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

2026-06-06

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

Make a Prediction

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Comments

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus