M

Question

How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?

Resolved :0.8-1.52
Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction-1.52 (-3.14 - 0.0773)

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CDF

Lower boundcommunityMy Prediction
<-81.3%
Quartiles
lower 25%-3.143
median-1.518
upper 75%0.07733
Upper bound
>80.2%

What was the final result?0.8

Community Baseline Score
44.4
Community Peer Score
3.0
Opened:Aug 10, 2023
Closes:Sep 1, 2023
Resolves:Sep 7, 2023

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