Question

Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction1% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

LordNPython

Opened:

Oct 1, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI cancels its o3 AI model in favor of a ‘unified’ next-gen release

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

OpenAI lays out plans for GPT-5

Verge•Feb 13, 2025

Sam Altman details the plan for OpenAI's GPT-5

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

17%

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-07-12

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

2025-05-18

Comments

? comments

Authors:

LordNPython

Opened:

Oct 1, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI cancels its o3 AI model in favor of a ‘unified’ next-gen release

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

OpenAI lays out plans for GPT-5

Verge•Feb 13, 2025

Sam Altman details the plan for OpenAI's GPT-5

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

17%

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-07-12

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

2025-05-18