Question

What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?

Resolved :100113

3 comments3

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction113 (73.8 - 157)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>5k

...

73.77

112.6

157.4

0.1%

What was the final result?100

Community Baseline Score

150.7

Community Peer Score

26.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

aoeiur

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

‘Several hundred’ could be dead after Cyclone Chido hits France’s Mayotte

Al Jazeera•Dec 16, 2024

Cyclone Chido causes hundreds of deaths on Mayotte islands in Indian Ocean, officials say

PBS NewsHour•Dec 16, 2024

Hundreds of people killed on French island after cyclone flattens entire neighbourhoods - amid fears death toll could reach 1,000

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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