Question

What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?

Resolved :100

3 comments3

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction113

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>5k

...

73.77

112.6

157.4

0.1%

What was the final result?100

Community Baseline Score

150.7

Community Peer Score

26.0

Authors:

aoeiur

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hawaii

Maui County, Hawaii

Lahaina, Hawaii

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

74.3k

Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?

10%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Comments

? comments

Authors:

aoeiur

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hawaii

Maui County, Hawaii

Lahaina, Hawaii

Researchers say poverty and unemployment are up in Lahaina after last year’s wildfires

Associated Press•Oct 9, 2024

Critical locked gate overlooked in investigation of Maui fire evacuation

Associated Press•Oct 9, 2024

NC Officials Confirm 94 Storm-Related Deaths After Hurricane Helene

Breitbart•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

74.3k

Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?

10%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587