Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

-2
3
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction25% (20% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 25%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Demonstrations
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Neuroscience
Effective altruism
Open Philanthropy
Philosophy
Rob Long
Computational theory of mind
80,000 Hours

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