📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?

Resolved :Yes30%
123
43
Total Forecasters525
Community Prediction30% (20% - 43%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 30%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
9.1
Community Peer Score
24.2
Authors:
Zyglropteryx
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Playing God Series
Natural Sciences
Social Sciences
Technology
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Biology
Genetics
CRISPR
China
United Kingdom
Biotechnology
Medicine
Pulmonology
Cystic fibrosis

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