Question

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction10% (1.4% - 15.4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Oct 7, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Politics

New York City

New York City Police Department

Anti-Jewish hate crimes spiked last year in NYC, with more than 300 incidents reported

New York Post•Jan 22, 2025

Democrat-Run NYC Sees 146% Rise in Felony Assaults by Repeat Offenders

Breitbart•Jan 24, 2025

How this thriving NYC neighborhood became a ‘killing field’ — with a haunting legacy of unsolved murders it can’t escape

New York Post•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the US homicide rate per 100,000 be in the following years?

5.66

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

5.58

What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years?

5.32

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Oct 7, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Politics

New York City

New York City Police Department

Anti-Jewish hate crimes spiked last year in NYC, with more than 300 incidents reported

New York Post•Jan 22, 2025

Democrat-Run NYC Sees 146% Rise in Felony Assaults by Repeat Offenders

Breitbart•Jan 24, 2025

How this thriving NYC neighborhood became a ‘killing field’ — with a haunting legacy of unsolved murders it can’t escape

New York Post•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the US homicide rate per 100,000 be in the following years?

5.66

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

5.58

What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years?

5.32