Group

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

90 comments90

179 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Velyka Novosilka

Ivanivske

Kostyantynivka

Sloviansk

Kramatorsk

Druzhkivka

Make a Prediction

City		My Prediction		Me
Velyka Novosilka	98%

Ivanivske	96%

Kostyantynivka	70%

Sloviansk	60%

Kramatorsk	54%

Druzhkivka	37%

Kherson	10%

Oleksandrivka	10%

Zaporizhzhia	10%

Kharkiv	9%

Odesa	1.5%

Lutsk	1%

Mikolaiv	1%

Dnipro	1%

Kyiv	1%

Lviv	0.1%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2027

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Comments

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Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2027

Ukraine-Russia mapped: How battle lines compare to pre-war 2014 borders ahead of potential peace talks

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

Maps: Ukraine’s Borders Pre-2014 Invasion to Now

New York Times•Feb 13, 2025

Ukraine War Map Reveals Russians Within Striking Distance of Critical City

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

16%