📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23
89
172 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CityMe
Ivanivske
95%
Velyka Novosilka
95%
Kostyantynivka
70%
Sloviansk
55%
Kramatorsk
52%
Druzhkivka
38%
Zaporizhzhia
10%
Oleksandrivka
8%
Kherson
7%
Kharkiv
6%
Lutsk
1%
Mikolaiv
1%
Dnipro
1%
Odesa
1%
Kyiv
1%
Lviv
0.4%
Authors:
ForkLeaf
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
Kramatorsk
Kostiantynivka
Kherson
Russo-Ukrainian War
Odessa
Lutsk
Dnipro
Oleksandrivka
Kharkiv
Velyka Novosilka

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