Question

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction94% (90% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 94%

Authors:

kqr

Opened:

Aug 24, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Politics

Sweden

Swedish Security Service

UK Threat Levels

Sweden School Campus Shooting: 'Around 10 Killed'—Police

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Around 10 people killed in attack outside a school for adults in Sweden.

USA Today•Feb 15, 2025

Multiple people killed in shooting at adult education center in Sweden

PBS NewsHour•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?

18.6k

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60%

Comments

? comments