Question

Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?

Resolved :No

31 comments31

Total Forecasters112

Community Prediction0.5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

80.9

Community Peer Score

14.8

median 0.5%mean 2.5%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

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Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?