Question
What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?
Resolved :6.64.45Total Forecasters40
Community Prediction4.45 (0.672 - 7.16)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-25 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.6723 | — |
| median | 4.451 | — |
| upper 75% | 7.16 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >25 | 0.4% | — |
What was the final result?6.6
Community Baseline Score
41.1
Community Peer Score
6.6
Authors:
Opened:Aug 26, 2023
Closes:Sep 19, 2023
Resolves:Sep 20, 2023
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 26, 2023
Closes:Sep 19, 2023
Resolves:Sep 20, 2023
