Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?

Resolved :No1%
15
14
Total Forecasters103
Community Prediction1% (0.2% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
66.2
Community Peer Score
22.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2023 Leaderboard
Game theory

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