Question

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Total Forecasters271

Community Prediction2025-10-17 (2025-05-19 - 2026-06-25)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2030-01-01
community	May 2025	Oct 2025	Jun 2026	1.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	May 2025	—
median	Oct 2025	—
upper 75%	Jun 2026	—
Upper bound
>2030-01-01	1.5%	—

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Kremlin says a 2022 Ukrainian law bans Zelenskyy from talks with Putin

Associated Press•Mar 5, 2025

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin says starting point for peace could be 2022 talks; rearming will 'ruin Europe', Orban warns

•Mar 7, 2025

In a Russian border region scarred by war, civilians want peace with Ukraine — but not compromise

NBC•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

17%

Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025?

21.7%

Comments

? comments