Question

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction44% (26% - 50%)

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50%

community: 44%

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Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

47%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

85%

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.36

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Trump 2.0’s impact on social mobility: the good, the bad, and the uncertain

American Thinker•Dec 21, 2024

What Will 2025 Bring - A Fiscal Hangover From Elections

Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

47%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

85%

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.36

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Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

Make a Prediction

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

Comments

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?