Question

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction48% (35% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 48%

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

84.4%

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.34

What will productivity be in the United States in the following years?

76.8

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Exploring the ups and downs of Canada's 2024 job market and what lies ahead

Business Insider•Jan 17, 2025

From GDP to trade, how well equipped is China’s economy for Trump 2.0?

Guardian•Jan 19, 2025

A Longtime Biden Adviser Gives a Final Defense of Bidenomics

New Yorker•Jan 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

84.4%

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.34

What will productivity be in the United States in the following years?

76.8