Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

3
60
30 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Biden Polling Marginresolution
community
<-15
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15
0.1%
-3.219
-1.944
-0.5947
0.1%

What was the final result?-2.3

Community Baseline Score
81.3
Community Peer Score
3.3
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 7
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2023 Leaderboard
2024 Elections (US)
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
RealClearPolitics

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