Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

Resolved :No0.4%
12
17
Total Forecasters146
Community Prediction0.4% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
93.3
Community Peer Score
18.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
christiantburrmarcus
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
US House of Representatives
Supreme Court of the US
President of the US
Republican Party (US)
Donald Trump
Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution
New Hampshire Secretary of State
Jocelyn Benson
Michigan Secretary of State

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