Question

Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?

Resolved :Yes98%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction98% (94% - 99%)

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50%

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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24.0

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11.7

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Authors:

evenius

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

85%

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

evenius

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Generative AI Still Needs to Prove Its Usefulness

Wired•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

85%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Comments

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?