Question

Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?

Resolved :Yes98%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction98% (94% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

24.0

Community Peer Score

11.7

Authors:

evenius

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Teaching Artificial Intelligence to Think on Its Feet

Psychology Today•Jan 17, 2025

Can AI Condense Two Years of Learning Into Six Weeks?

Psychology Today•Jan 19, 2025

Comrade AI: OpenAI’s ‘o1’ Reasoning Model Mysteriously ‘Thinks’ in Chinese

Breitbart•Jan 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

87%

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

90%

Comments

? comments