Question

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

median 99.0%mean 90.2%

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Zaporizhia

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Ukraine

What is the future of Ukraine? Trump's return raises uncertainty of U.S. sending more aid

MSNBC•Nov 12, 2024

How Trump could carve up Ukraine: 'Peace plan' with 800-mile buffer zone marshalled by UK troops, territory swaps and no NATO membership

Daily Mail•Nov 13, 2024

The Impact of the US Election For Ukraine- Can Trump do a Deal With Putin on Ukraine?

Lew Rockwell•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Zaporizhia

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Ukraine

What is the future of Ukraine? Trump's return raises uncertainty of U.S. sending more aid

MSNBC•Nov 12, 2024

How Trump could carve up Ukraine: 'Peace plan' with 800-mile buffer zone marshalled by UK troops, territory swaps and no NATO membership

Daily Mail•Nov 13, 2024

The Impact of the US Election For Ukraine- Can Trump do a Deal With Putin on Ukraine?

Lew Rockwell•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%