M

conditional
condition

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

41%
41%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

58%
58%
4
0

Make a Prediction

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

50%
community: 40.8%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Sep 12, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2042
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2043
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Economy & Business
People's Liberation Army
Economy of the United States
World Bank
Taiwan–US relations
Republic of China Navy
Chinese Civil War
Historical GDP of China

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