📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections?

25
31
107 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

OptionMe
R President, R House, R Senate
yes
R President, D House, R Senate
no
D President, R House, D Senate
no
D President, R House, R Senate
no
R President, R House, D Senate
no
D President, D House, D Senate
no
D President, D House, R Senate
no
R President, D House, D Senate
no
Resolved Nov 8, 2024
Community Baseline Score
-108.8
Community Peer Score
53.7
Authors:
PeterWildeford
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
US House of Representatives
Democratic Party (US)
Elections in the United States
United States
Divided government in the United States
Party divisions of United States Congresses
Republican Party (US)
2024 United States Senate elections
US Senate

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