conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
The question "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" resolves.
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <2020-03-27 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 2025 | — |
| median | 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2200-01-04 | 0.3% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 20, 2023
Closed:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Sep 20, 2023
Closed:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
