🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Resolved :Yes99%
18
23
Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction99% (92% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
35.3
Community Peer Score
5.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
jleibowichkokotajlodwill_aldred
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
AI Safety
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Machine learning
Anthropic
Meta
Linguistics
OpenAI

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