Question
Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?
Resolved :Yes99%Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction99% (92% - 99.9%)
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Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Baseline Score
35.3
Community Peer Score
5.0
Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Dec 31, 2024
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?
80%
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Dec 31, 2024
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?
80%