Question

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters123

Community Prediction7%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

median 7.0%mean 12.2%

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

Those bold AGI predictions are suddenly looking stretched

Business Insider•Nov 17, 2024

AI training software firm iLearningEngines says it lost $250,000 in recent cyberattack

TechCrunch•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%