Question

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters123

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 14.2%

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

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Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

Information theory

Education

Biology

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

Information theory

Education

Biology

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?