Question

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters123

Community Prediction7%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

median 7.0%mean 12.2%

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

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Red State•Nov 13, 2024

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•Nov 14, 2024

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

OpenAI set to launch ‘Operator’ in January — AI agents that can do tasks for you

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%