Question

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction3.4% (1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.4%

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

New Tests Reveal AI’s Capacity for Deception

Time•Dec 16, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

0.5%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Computer worm

Policy

Machine learning

Cybersecurity standards

Cyber-security regulation

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

New Tests Reveal AI’s Capacity for Deception

Time•Dec 16, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

0.5%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?