Question

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Resolved :No0.1%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

88.9

Community Peer Score

17.2

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Sep 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

AI Is Too Unpredictable to Behave According to Human Goals

Scientific American•Jan 27, 2025

AI crosses ‘red line’ after learning to replicate itself

Independent•Jan 27, 2025

The DeepSeek panic reveals an AI world ready to blow | James Vincent

Guardian•Jan 28, 2025

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25%

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