Question

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 0.5%

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Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

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AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

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Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

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•Dec 17, 2024

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

2.6%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

2.6%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?