Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?

Resolved :44.03
7
83
Total Forecasters46
Community Prediction4.03 (3.9 - 4.2)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
3.901
4.026
4.2

What was the final result?4

Community Baseline Score
109.3
Community Peer Score
48.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
TNTOutburst
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
September 11 attacks
Iran hostage crisis
Supreme Court of the US
2024 Elections (US)
NATO
Korean War
Allan Lichtman
Vladimir Keilis-Borok
The Keys to the White House

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