Question

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

Resolved :No1%

16 comments16

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

71.8

Community Peer Score

12.0

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Oct 4, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

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