Question

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction2%

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50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 7.0%

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

Comments

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Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%