Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

[Short Fuse] How many Democrats will vote to retain Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House?

3
3
5 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 4

Make a Prediction

VotesMe
2
no
0
yes
1
no
3
no
4
no
5 or more
no
Resolved Oct 3, 2023
Community Baseline Score
76.4
Community Peer Score
-1.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
Speaker of the US House of Representatives
US House of Representatives
Matt Gaetz
Kevin McCarthy (California politician)
117th United States Congress
Jake Sherman

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