Question

[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?

Resolved :Yes60%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters3

Community Prediction60% (50% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

28.5

Community Peer Score

5.6

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

US House of Representatives

Indian National Congress

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Motion to vacate

Republican House Majority in Peril

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Johnson Speakership Hangs in Balance as Spending Deal Collapses

Breitbart•Dec 19, 2024

Is the speaker’s gavel slowly slipping away from Mike Johnson?

MSNBC•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

0.1%

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

99%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

US House of Representatives

Indian National Congress

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Motion to vacate

Republican House Majority in Peril

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Johnson Speakership Hangs in Balance as Spending Deal Collapses

Breitbart•Dec 19, 2024

Is the speaker’s gavel slowly slipping away from Mike Johnson?

MSNBC•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

0.1%

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

99%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Comments

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?