Question

[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?

Resolved :Yes

2 comments2

Total Forecasters3

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

28.5

Community Peer Score

5.6

median 60.0%mean 63.7%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

US House of Representatives

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Indian National Congress

Motion to vacate

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

97%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

20%

Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?

45%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

US House of Representatives

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Indian National Congress

Motion to vacate

Full List of House Republicans at Risk of Losing Their Seats

Newsweek•Oct 12, 2024

'Why would I sign up for this again?' GOP reps say Johnson has 'no chance' of keeping gavel

AlterNet•Oct 12, 2024

'Why would I sign up for this again?' GOP reps say speaker has 'no chance' of keeping job

Raw Story•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

97%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

20%

Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?

45%