Question

How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?

Resolved :46.75

20 comments20

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction6.75 (4.42 - 10.1)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

4.419

6.747

10.09

1.0%

What was the final result?4

Community Baseline Score

58.1

Community Peer Score

26.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

Matt Gaetz

US House of Representatives

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Republican Party (US)

Johnson Speakership Hangs in Balance as Spending Deal Collapses

Breitbart•Dec 19, 2024

Is the speaker’s gavel slowly slipping away from Mike Johnson?

MSNBC•Dec 20, 2024

Mike Johnson's Hopes of Remaining House Speaker Nosedive

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

99%

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

0.1%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

Matt Gaetz

US House of Representatives

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Republican Party (US)

Johnson Speakership Hangs in Balance as Spending Deal Collapses

Breitbart•Dec 19, 2024

Is the speaker’s gavel slowly slipping away from Mike Johnson?

MSNBC•Dec 20, 2024

Mike Johnson's Hopes of Remaining House Speaker Nosedive

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

99%

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

0.1%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?

Make a Prediction

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Comments

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?