Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?

Resolved :Oct 25, 20232023-10-31
8
9
Total Forecasters92
Community Prediction2023-10-31 (2023-10-25 - 2023-11-14)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2023-11-30
...
...
...
...
2023-10-25 07:37
2023-10-31 19:56
2023-11-14 02:26
14.6%

What was the final result?Oct 25, 2023

Community Baseline Score
15.9
Community Peer Score
35.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeckNMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
Matt Gaetz
US House of Representatives
Kevin McCarthy (California politician)
Republican Party (US)

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