Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

conditional
condition

Next US Speaker of the House? (Steve Scalise (R))

Resolved :No
5 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Government Shutdown Before 2024?

43%
43%
Resolved :Annulled42.5%

US Government Shutdown Before 2024?

65%
65%
Resolved :No65%
1
1

Make a Prediction

Next US Speaker of the House? (Steve Scalise (R))

US Government Shutdown Before 2024?

50%
community: 42.5%
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
US House of Representatives
Kevin McCarthy (California politician)
Constitution of the US
116th United States Congress
United States Office of Personnel Management
Nancy Pelosi
John Boehner
Government shutdowns in the United States
Republican Party (US)

Comments

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