Question

Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?

Resolved :No29%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction29% (14% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

45.8

Community Peer Score

18.4

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Mar 23, 2016

Closes:

Nov 15, 2016

Resolves:

May 1, 2017

Health & Pandemics

Social Sciences

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Wastewater sampling could be key to early warning of new disease outbreaks

Guardian•Mar 5, 2025

Wuhan Institute of Virology Collaborators Call Out Dangerous Research — Five Years Late

Daily Caller•Mar 7, 2025

Experts warn Americans ‘should bank on’ having more pandemics in the future

Independent•Mar 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

15%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

? comments