Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

21 comments21

78 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2028

2026

2025

2024

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2028	30%

2026	25%

2025	20%

2024	no

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Elo rating system

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI set to launch ‘Operator’ in January — AI agents that can do tasks for you

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Elo rating system

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI set to launch ‘Operator’ in January — AI agents that can do tasks for you

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?