Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

23 comments23

80 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 29

2028

2026

2025

2024

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2024	no

2028	30%

2026	25%

2025	15%

Resolved Dec 31, 2023

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91.8

Community Peer Score

6.8

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Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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2021-2025 Leaderboard

Game theory

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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Game theory

Elo rating system

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI announces new o3 models

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?